What does theory of change mean

You are now ready to start thinking about what outputs products, services or facilities will help you to bring about the outcomes you have identified. For a new piece of work, this will involve thinking creatively about the outputs that will be most effective in bringing about your desired outcomes, and when they are best delivered. To help with this, you could consider the outcomes you hope will occur through your work, then review external research to see what kinds of outputs have brought about these outcomes in the past see more in step 2.

If you are creating a theory of change for an existing project, plot your existing activities and outputs. This is a good chance to discuss how well outputs are delivering your anticipated outcomes and may lead to some revision of what you do, and how you do it. At this point, it is also helpful to explore which outcomes your work directly contributes to, and which ones are beyond the scope of your work.

If you are using your theory of change for evaluation, this step is essential to ensure you evaluate the right things. Remember that some outputs will involve collaboration with other agencies and some outcomes may only be achieved if other services are also involved in some way, so these contact points or joint activities will need to be charted as part of your theory.

Any theory of change is rooted in assumptions. Assumptions are the conditions that need to be in place to make the theory work; they explain the logic behind the overall programme and behind the causal links for example, showing that an output will lead to an outcome, or that one outcome will lead to another in the theory. However, exploring assumptions is important: they can affect how successful an intervention is and may need to shape how you deliver your intervention or be tested out in your evaluation — or both.

Once you have plotted out your theory of change steps 2 to 6 above , you can reflect on the assumptions that underpin it. If, when using theory of change for planning a new piece of work, you identify very significant critical assumptions underlying that work, you may need to rethink your plans — or at least have risk mitigation plans in place.

If you are using theory of change for evaluation, you will need to monitor critical assumptions carefully and test them through evaluation. Gathering early evidence about these may be important to ensure your work stays on track. For all assumptions critical and others consider if there is existing evidence to support them — you might find this in academic literature, reports from your organisation or others and in the expertise and experience of key stakeholders.

For planning purposes, understanding the existing evidence base may help you decide if your intended way of working is likely to be effective. For evaluation, it can be helpful to focus your data collection on areas where there is little or no existing evidence to build your understanding of what works and in what context.

In this case, make sure you plan data collection carefully so you can build up your own evidence base. Write in timelines in your accompanying notes for when you expect to see the activities and outputs happen. This should shape stakeholder expectations of what can be achieved through your intervention.

It will also help you plan when to collect data. If you think through the work associated with the delivery of your outputs, this will help you to plan the resources you will need and to set a budget for the intervention. Remember to bring to the surface assumptions about the amount of staff and volunteer time that will be needed or about the level of skills that will be necessary and available to you for delivering the intervention. When you evaluate, one question to consider may be whether appropriate resources were planned and delivered.

As you develop your theory of change you will need to make it available in a useful format. Most people find a diagram or map helpful. Think about how you will consult with stakeholders on your diagram and narrative, and make sure you allow enough time to discuss and incorporate their comments. It can also help you to communicate succinctly about your work and the change it makes.

If you want to go on to evaluate your work, you should use your theory to help you develop a monitoring and evaluation framework which identifies what information you will collect. This can be useful for communicating about the intervention to potential partners, participants and policymakers, and for also providing a consistent point of reference for those involved in implementing and managing it. A theory of change is not just a list of activities with arrows to intended outcomes.

It needs to explain how these changes are understood to come about and the role the intervention will play in this — and the role of other factors, including other interventions. While the core of the theory of change focuses on the links between activities and impacts, it is more useful if it does not only cover these.

Check if the following elements are in place and, if not, if it is possible to add them either in the main diagram and narrative or in supplementary documents:.

A negative theory of change can also be developed to identify possible negative unintended outcomes in order to set in place risk mitigation strategies to avoid them, and data collection that will detect if they have occurred. A sound theory of change draws on a range of evidence — previous similar projects and programs, previous research and evaluation, the mental models of stakeholders including planners, managers and staff, partner organizations, and intended beneficiaries , and observation of the program and patterns in outcomes and impacts..

It is important to ensure that the process is adequately inclusive of relevant perspectives, values and evidence. If the theory of change has only used a group meeting to build it, it is likely that some more systematic analysis and review of relevant research and evaluation will improve its quality. If you are developing a new theory of change, or reviewing an existing one, check if these different processes have been included and, if not, if it is possible to add them:.

Check that the process of reviewing or developing the theory of change involves the right people in the right ways in the process of developing or reviewing the theory of change. In some cases it will be possible and desirable to involve a range of people in the whole process of gathering information and developing the theory of change; in other cases it will be better to delegate or hire someone to develop a draft and then engage the wider group in reviewing and revising the draft.

This link provides a matrix of different people and groups and roles that can be used to support discussion of this issue and document the decisions made. If you are reviewing and revising an existing theory of change, talk with your staff, colleagues and partners and check previous documentation to review it in terms of these issues:.

If there are gaps in the evidence that has been used to develop the theory of change, or indications that it has changed since being developed, draw on these different sources of evidence to revise it. A theory of change has most benefit if it provides a common reference point for those working together.

This means it needs to be accessible and referred to during discussions and decisions about the project or program. But sometimes it is ignored or forgotten after the initial planning stage, especially if new people come into the program or project and are not aware of what has been done. It is important to be clear about the intended impacts of projects, programs and policies.

Sometimes there will be different views among partner organisations about these. In some programs and projects there is clarity and agreement about the intended impacts. In other cases there is disagreement for example, when different partner organizations have different agendas for involvement or uncertainty for example, in a capacity development project where the specific changes that will arise are not tightly specified in advance.

It is also important to be clear about how these intended impacts are expected to be produced — and who will be involved in doing this. In some cases, your project or program might be directly involved — for example, providing direct services. But in many cases, you will be working with other organizations either at the same time or in sequence to bring about the intended changes. For example, you might work with participants to increase their knowledge and skills, and then they work directly with intended beneficiaries, or you support them to produce research outputs and then organizations are intended to use this research to inform and improve policy and planning.

For example, behavior changes such as reduced drink driving or increased uptake of science research can come about through one or more change theories:. For each change theory, there are different possible action theories about what activities might be implemented to trigger the change theory.

For example, changing incentives in terms of increasing rewards might involve:. Being explicit about change theories and action theories makes it easier to identify what are appropriate local adaptations of a program and what constitutes good quality implementation.

It is likely that there will be different change theories and action theories at different stages of the project or program and at different sites. Try to ensure that the theory of change has explicit change theories and action theories. Talk with your staff, colleagues and partners, check previous documentation and review relevant research and evaluation to find out:.

The project or program activities are intended to contribute to the change process. How they do this can be understood as an action theory — a theory that if the project or program does particular things, these activities will trigger the type of change identified in the change theory.

This link shows some example change theories and action theories that could produce different types of outcomes and impacts at different stages of a program. A theory of change is often represented in a diagram with an accompanying narrative. There are different types of diagrams that can be used.

Diagrams should clearly show the direction of change and are most commonly drawn to be read from left to right, top to bottom, or bottom to top. Sometimes it is useful to have several different versions — such as an overview diagram for general use with more detailed diagrams of particular components or for particular purposes. For complicated theories of change, it can be helpful to have different diagrams with varying levels of detail. An accompanying narrative can complement the diagram and be more accessible for some people.

There are many different options for representing a theory of change and it is important to choose a format which will communicate clearly. Four main options include:. Check the quality of the diagram in terms of its coherence, logic and clarity and revise it as needed:. Talk with your staff, colleagues and partners, check previous documentation and review other theories of change to find out:.

To promote Theory of Change accountability, there are many key questions that investors must address with investees in their portfolio:.

Now that we know what is Theory of Change, why it is important to have one, and what are those essential elements it includes, the question is, how do we start? You can refer step by step guidance in Actionable Impact Management Guide.

Each step builds on the last you might have noticed, but each step is designed to inform the next. Skipping steps might lead to inconsistencies in the impact measurement strategy you are designing. You can use some of the templates provided in the Guidebook. There is some Theory of Change tools available, and they can help in the initial strategy. They do not have a complete data management thought process behind them, so they only provide primary design. If you work within a designated community toward its general improvement, you face some unique challenges when formatting your impact framework.

You may find that funding's internal politics plays a particularly prominent role within such a condensed environment. Well, it all boils down to impact communication. Program Structure is one of Actionable Impact Management's first activities. It turns out that the structure of programming is not one-size-fits-all. This is especially true of organizations with a fluid set of focus areas. Community foundations, impact funds, or impact investors who focus on place rather than issue all have a similar problem regarding the program structure outlined above.

Namely, that it does not account for their Vision and Mission. Your goal is to strengthen a community — not further education or safety. To answer for this while continuing to communicate the importance of the focus areas, you might distinguish between what your organization cares about and how your organization cares by structuring your programs in the following way:.

This helps to remind your staff, board, and advisors of the scope of your organization's activities while also embedding the focus areas that represent the intended community impact. Once you have defined the complete program structure, you can start building a theory of change of each program. Each program needs to realize common indicators that can allow organizations to define aggregate results.

Once you build ToC, the next step is selecting Metrics. Unlike many theory-of-change-based software or tools, Impact Cloud is the fastest way to build an overall impact strategy and start a data-driven impact journey.

Beyond Theory of Change Template. Previous Post. Next Post. TOC Examples. TOC Templates. TOC Model. TOC Resources. Theory of Action Theory of Action defines an actionable approach to maximize social impact. The outputs are the immediate results of our activities or products, and they are necessary for achieving the outcomes. Think of them as positive indicators that the outcomes are on track. In this case, we are assuming that as more and more people go through quality marketable training, there is a greater possibility of an increase in successful job placements.

To dig deeper, collecting some demographic data, along with service data can help to draw useful connections. Along with quality skill-building training, an activity can also include resume preparation or interview preparation. All of these increase the number of successful placement possibilities. Inputs refer to the resources or investments needed to ensure that the activities take place.

According to our example, we need quality course materials, skilled trainers, a physical venue, or an online host, investment, and more. The theory of change needs to be aligned to your initiative, project, or program and stated mission. The most important components to monitor are the Outputs and Outcomes, so make sure to define relevant metrics and track results over time. And, Everywhere possible, we should include stakeholder's data, such as demographics and surveys to capture their feedback.

Involve your key stakeholders. A stakeholder is any person who benefited or affected by your activities. Communicate your intent to implement or improve your impact measurement and management strategy. In the beginning, this might be done through information sessions open to anyone interested in learning more about the new impact measurement process.

Remember that the desired outcomes motivate people. Be sure to expose the need for change to the whole organization and clearly describe how the change will benefit each organization's area. Impact Experiments - Short and Frequent. Stakeholders Who is benefiting from your work? And Why will it work? Is unemployment is one of the burning issues of your community?

Do they have demand for the skill training you are providing? Are local companies ready to hire students after they finish their training? Program Goal What result are you seeking to achieve?

Duration How soon will you achieve the desired results? Plan to collect and analyze year after year data to see the progress 4. Input and Activities How will you achieve and demonstrate your results?